From 10 ETH back down to 1 ETH. It’s fair to ask: How to value MekaVerse NFTs?
More than one month after its launch, the hype that once surrounded the MekaVerse NFT collection appears to have vanished. Amidst a series of rumors and a lack of immediate utility, the collection’s floor price has collapsed from almost 10 ETH to the current floor of 1 ETH. Once viewed as the next premier collection, it’s fair to ask, How to value the MekaVerse NFTs?
MekaVerse is a collection of 8,888 randomly generated avatar NFTs that are hosted on the Ethereum blockchain. Inspired by mechas, a term used in Japanese culture to describe giant humanoid robots that are piloted by people, the MekaVerse was one of the most hotly-anticipated NFT collections. Containing very attractive designs, the Mekas bring nostalgia to people that spend time reading manga and watching anime like Gundam, Evangelion, or modern movies like Pacific Rim.
The valuation process of any NFT collection takes into account several factors. Firstly, to analyze each piece individually, we focus on the uniqueness and rarity of its traits. The art itself is also relevant but a very subjective aspect. Then, to analyze the collection as a NFT project, we assess different factors including the utility granted by owning one or more pieces; the community surrounding the project, the team behind it, and how well distributed a collection is. These set of factors are important to consider as the project naturally evolves over time.
Table of contents
- MekaVerse: collection overview
- Meka traits analysis
- Lack of added utility
- Huge Meka community
- The Meka Team
- In summary
MekaVerse: collection overview
After a summer that saw several NFT avatar collections flooding social networks as profile pictures while netting their owner’s thousands or even millions of dollars in net profits, the MekaVerse collection was expected to become the next big hit. Once the art leaked, the collection generated such hype that the MekaVerse community surpassed 100,000 members on Discord even before the launch.
To avoid the well-known gas wars, the Meka team began a raffle to ensure a fair drop while allowing anyone access to the mint at 0.2 ETH. The raffle took place and almost 8,600 Mekas were minted on October 7, 2021, by 5,453 unique holders. The price after the mint went as high as 9 ETH on the secondary markets, while the reveal was delayed for one week due to issues with the Mekas’ High-Quality 3D Renders.
Nonetheless, by that time, rumors surrounding the fair raffle selection began to spread on social media. This was spurred on by tweets hinting at privileged information practices, as some wallets targeted specific Mekas that eventually became valuable before the metadata was even revealed. Privileged information in the NFT space was a hot topic at that time. In fact, a prominent OpenSea member had been involved in this kind of scandal just a few weeks before. The Mekas began a downward spiral commenced by the aforementioned rumors, but also by the lack of utility beyond serving as mere avatars.
The floor price of the Mekas came crashing down all the way to 1 ETH. This floor price has been held for at least two weeks. Despite recent events, MekaVerse is the 15th most traded collection ever. It has amassed over $153.5 million in 35 days since launch.
Meka trait analysis
The following section is based on more than 9,000 trades involving 5,103 Mekas that were sold on the secondary market. Although there are more than 3,000 Mekas that were not tracked for this analysis, we consider the sample statistically representative to identify some patterns.
The 8,888 Mekas were randomly generated from a combination of 10 attributes that include 236 different traits and palettes. Among the 8,888 Mekas, there are 4 pieces that receive a Legendary status, so these will not be part of the analysis as their status simply puts them in a different category.
Analyzing the traits individually provides us with an overview of how the rarity works in each collection. This analysis also gives us a chance to identify certain traits that are associated with higher sale prices.
The first attribute that stands out in the MekaVerse is the type attribute. In randomly generated collections, tier classification is normally the first attribute to assess. In MekaVerse, there are 4 types of Meka with different rarity levels: OG Meka (50.31%), Mirage (21.46%), Gādian (16.29%), and F9 (11.88%).
By analyzing the sales and segregating by Meka type, we discover that this variable presents a dependency towards the price variable. As expected, the OG Meka ($17,000) normally drives a lower average sale price than the F9 type ($25,530). This goes in accordance with the Meka type rarity that was priorly stated.
However, the price difference between the levels does not necessarily match the rarity levels. Considering only those sales after the metadata was revealed (October 15), the rarity distribution is more visible in accordance with the price ranges. Also, the decrease in the price of the collection can be clearly observed. OG Mekas sold, on average, for $9,203 after the reveal, whilst F9 type is being traded for $15,288 on average since then.
Moving along with the rest of the attributes, we analyze Weapon next. Surprisingly, although 76.6% of the Mekas do not carry a weapon, the trait is not necessarily a differentiator in the collection’s price.
In this case, the patterns before and after the reveal do not change significantly. Mekas without weapons sold for approximately $12,800. Rare weapon traits like MI Ray Guns (1.41%), OG Kannons (2.1%), or OG Smiley K1 (0.92%) all are being traded for less than $14,000 on average despite the high rarity levels. On the other hand, Mi Utopia (0.14%) and the OG Cannon Brick (0.27%) have sold for $85,000 and $101,000 on average respectively. Critically, weapons do not add value to the Gādian and F9 type of Mekas opposite to the OG and Mirage types.
Material is another important attribute that plays a role in assessing a Meka’s price. The Full Gold (0.07%), Full Silver (0.12%) and Sky (0.18%) materials are some of the rarest traits of the MekaVerse collection. Without a doubt, pieces containing those materials drove the highest sales on average, with a floor price of 18 ETH in the case of Sky, and 50 ETH and 60 ETH for the gold and silver materials respectively.
Again, a trait associated with the OG type breaks the logic of the level type. The Brick trait (0.96%) found only in OG Mekas was sold on average for $79,000, while pieces containing the trait have a floor of 6.5 ETH, or $30.700 at the time of writing.
The color traits provide another standpoint that eliminates the rarity of the levels. The Aqua (4.55%) and Yellow (6.24%) colors are associated with the higher average sale prices despite the fact that both colors are only present in OG type of Mekas. The black (5.37%) and dark brown (15.97%) colors, which can be found across all types, were involved in high-priced sales too.
The rest of the attributes do not impact the price variable in general. However, we identify some traits that break the Meka type effect once more. For instance, Mekas containing OG Glowing Eyes Brick (0.4%), OG Eyes Brick (0.52%), or MI Red Visor (0.41%) have higher floor prices than the rest of the collection. The floor prices are at least 6 ETH in the OG’s case and 3.5 ETH for the Red Visor Mirages. Something similar happens to the OG Helmet Brick (0.97%) that nets $80,000 on average per sale.
All in all, the analysis of the traits gives a hint at assessing the price of certain pieces. The combination of attributes plays an important role as well. Thus, we discover traits that combined with others can be held higher than the rarity indicates. Also, as previously mentioned, rarity analysis sheds light on the potential valuation a piece may have, but to assess a full collection, other factors must come into play.
After analyzing the traits to assess the Mekas individually, we move forward to aspects that affect the collection from a macro perspective. These set of factors become relevant as they become the key foundations of a project, as they evolve over time.
One of Mekaverse’s main drawbacks has been the lack of immediate and tangible utility. As of late, NFT collections have brought their focus into rewarding owners with added utilities. Whether by providing additional NFTs, or generating passive income by holding an NFT, the space has set this as the standard.
Just this week, the MekaVerse announced an airdrop that might buck the trend. Replicating a model that was started by Larva Labs, owners holding a Meka will be eligible to receive the project’s second collection, the MekaBots. MekaBots will be airdropped on a 1:1 ratio; the snapshot is yet to be announced.
Besides the Bots, the MekaVerse roadmap comes with interesting milestones, which if met, will bring utilities beyond the digital space. For instance, a 3D printing service to convert each Meka into a physical action figure, as well as merchandise and apparel inspired by the collection could arrive.
The future of the project is still up in the air. As of now, the utility presented is nothing spectacular, especially when compared to other new projects that provide either yield-bearing tokens, collaborations, or quite complete roadmaps. Yet seeing real utility may help the collection regain its position as a consolidated project. There are hints at a second phase of the roadmap that may even include a play-to-earn game centered around the MekaVerse.
Behind the scenes of the MekaVerse: Community & Team
People that are highly involved in the NFTs industry would argue that the community aspect is the most important attribute for the collection’s success. And the community aspect within the MekaVerse is a strength.
Before the project was even launched, the hype surrounding the collection helped MekaVerse consolidate what is still one of the largest communities in the NFT space. On Twitter, the project has not been used actively as avatars. A movement that is evident in top-tier projects like Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) or Cool Cats. Still, the MekaVerse is newer than both of those projects so the comparison would not be fair.
On the other hand, it is a plus that the Twitter sentiment for the project is positive overall. The sentiment analysis is a technique that relies on Natural Language Processing to classify the interactions gathered around a topic, in this case, the MekaVerse. Crucially, the follower base on this social channel has been growing, signaling that the project is still sought after.
Discord tells a different story–at least in terms of social reach. At one point in October, the project’s Discord channel reached almost 245,000 members. As a result of the project’s negative streak, more than 30,000 members have abandoned the space. Still, the current 211,000 members make the MekaVerse’s Discord channel one of the largest in the NFT space.
The team behind an NFT project is another important factor for assessment. Mattey and Matty Braccini are the founders of the MekaVerse project. Both are Paris-based 3D artists that have been working around the NFT space before the project was launched. Their artwork is accessible within the MekaVerse site. If the project regains its course, and the game around the Mekas comes to fruition, their talent and 3D experience could become valuable. The core team also includes Julien Dorland, Digital Artist & NFT Collector that serves as the team’s moderator on social platforms.
Even though the rumors about fair distribution might have not been addressed perfectly, the fact that the core and founding team is completely public is positive.
One of the positive aspects about the project is how well distributed it is. This aspect was visible since launch. At the time of writing, 5.134 unique wallets hold at least one Meka. This number represents a 57.82% unique holders ratio, a number obtained by dividing the unique holders by the total supply. To put that in perspective, BAYC, one of the best distributed projects in the space, has a 57.53% unique holders ratio currently.
To complete the distribution analysis, we analyze the Meka whales. These wallets contain a high concentration of MEKA tokens, representing ownership over these digital robot NFTs. The high unique holder’s ratio aligns with the low Whale Concentration Index. Looking at the top 5 MekaVerse holders, 182 Mekas are owned by these wallets.
Following the same process observed in the unique holder’s ratio, we obtain a Whale Concentration Index of just 2.04%. Again, one of the best distribution indicators in the space. This indicator is important to identify any potential risk of market manipulation. Which is more present in newer collections.
Finally, using the DappRadar Portfolio Tracking Tool, we dive deeper into these Meka whale wallets to see any significant pattern or trend. At the time of writing, the top 5 whales do not hold any significant position in other NFT premier collections. This Meka whale holds 9 pieces of the BAYC collection, 18 Bored Ape Kennel Club pieces, and a Mutant Ape; whilst this Meka whale holds 4 pieces from the Art Blocks collections and 4 Treeverse founder’s plots. The net worth of these whale wallets is $718,000 on average. A relatively strong figure, but well below the average of whales from top-tier NFT projects.
The MekaVerse enjoyed one of the most trepid starts in the NFT space. The hype before the launch, and the limited supply in comparison to the high demand, caused large trading volumes in the project’s first days of existence, supporting the project to become the 15th most traded NFT project ever.
While there is no straightforward manner to assess the value of Mekas individually, there are certain factors that play a bigger role in the price valuation. Let’s start with the Meka type. The correlation between price and the rarity levels is as expected. Nonetheless, the combination of certain traits like the OG weapons, materials, and colors breaks the Meka type logic; something that occurs across all randomly generated collections. Also, the aesthetics factor will always be present, giving subjectivity to each individual piece.
When analyzing the MekaVerse as a collection, there are certainly mixed reviews. Firstly, it is fair to question whether the MekaVerse team appropriately handled the rumors around the raffle’s fair distribution, and the pieces acquired by some wallets before the reveal. On the other hand, the team has continued building; finally adding visible utility, and has remained public about the project’s future.
The community, another critical factor for NFT projects, is robust in the MekaVerse. The project boasts one of the largest communities in the space, despite having lost some Discord members. Whilst demand for the project is not as strong as two weeks ago, it is something worth monitoring. This can be done easily by checking the MekaVerse page on DappRadar.
As of now, the outlook for the MekaVerse is all but certain. While there are negative aspects affecting the collection, it is worth remembering that the NFT space evolves rapidly and is still very nascent. The art behind the project remains very attractive and may become relevant if the play-to-earn phase is consolidated. The project may go in different directions. Nonetheless, we are always one announcement away from seeing a meteoric rise. If that were to happen to the MekaVerse, by reading this guide you’ll be all ready in good shape to strike at a good opportunity.